[SMM analysis] the price of prebaked anode decreased by 170RMB / t in April, and there is still a downward trend in the later stage.

Published: Apr 2, 2020 18:46

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SMM4, April 2: in April, Weiqiao lowered the basic purchase price of pre-baked anode to about 2660 yuan / ton (spot exchange), a reduction of 170 yuan / ton. According to SMM, other electrolytic aluminum manufacturers will be highly likely to reduce the anode purchase price.

SMM prebaked anode price

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Since the development of the epidemic, the aluminum industry chain is under full pressure, so what kind of pressure is the pre-baked anode market facing?

Cost end: after a short-term surge, the price of petroleum coke in a smelter fell to about the current price range of 800 yuan / ton, down about 35%. The main reason is that the operating rate of the smelter is not high and the supply of petroleum coke is less than the demand in the middle period of the epidemic, resulting in the overall quotation of petroleum coke is on the high side in the short term; in the later stage, the epidemic situation is gradually controlled and stable, although the operating rate of the smelter has rebounded, but the demand is insufficient in the same period. the low order quantity leads to the price of petroleum coke falling to a low level.

Supply side: the operating rate of commercial prebaked anode manufacturers is insufficient in March, and some anode manufacturers report the occurrence of accumulation. In the impact of the current epidemic situation, the current electrolytic aluminum plant profit pressure, has stopped production, maintenance and planned to stop the proportion of electrolytic aluminum plant gradually increased. As far as export is concerned, according to SMM, the export of prebaked anode in March is not obviously affected by the epidemic situation. If the subsequent foreign electrolytic aluminum plant has a substantial shutdown or will have a negative impact on the anode export.

SMM believes that the adverse effects of the current demand side still put pressure on the profits of commercial prebaked anode, and the anode price still has a downward trend in the later stage.

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Prebaked anode price forecast

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